Is the traditional desktop at the End of Days?

Gartner estimates that sales of traditional personal computers to fall to 271 million units by 2017. Traditional personal computers would cover desktops, all-in-one PC's, laptops and netbooks. This would be 94 million less than the estimated 365 million PC's shipped in 2011. The main reason for the decline in PC sales is the rise of the tablet. An estimated 116 million tablets were shipped in 2012. Gartner expects this number to hit 468 million by 2017.

Gartner apparently also sees the rise of "Ultramobiles", sales of which are expected to hit 96 million units by 2017. I am not sure if we will see the return of the Ultra Mobile PC, but Gatner is the expert. I suspect, the Ultramobile's as defined by Gartner would be Intel x86 tablets.

This trend is not too hard to understand. 

• Tablets are becoming the cheapest personal computing platforms ever made. Decent tablets can be purchased for a third of the cost of the derided netbook. 
• Tablet operating systems, are simpler, coupled with their touchscreen interfaces make them easier to learn for first time users. Children, easily interact.  
• The application ecosystem for tablets is also less expensive than the personal computer.
• Having ditch the keyboard, tablets are more portable than a laptop, smaller 7-inch tablets being even more portable
• Keyboard docks or covers can give tablet laptop like functionality
• With Windows 8 tablets can now run traditional PC apps

In terms of the high estimated demand for tablets, one other factor should be considered. Tablets are really not designed to last more than two years. For most models, batteries cannot be replaced. While the typical laptop or desktop stays with its two to five years, owner original owner, and after that gets a second life in the surplus market, tablets will wind up being retired every two to three years.

Going back to the growing trend to tablets, when you factor things all these things together, laptops would still appeal to users looking at 12-inch or larger displays. In the same way that desktops survived the laptop era, laptops will survive the rise of the tablet. 

A evolution in the current mobile ecosystem may bring an end to traditional dektop as we know it. As smartphones and tablets become more powerful, we might see a revival of the Lapdock and similar concepts. With accessories converting smartphones and tablets into laptop and desktop replacements, we may see the end of the traditional desktop.

I would not worry to much, it really more an evolution of the personal computer than the death of the desktop.

Right now, the important thing is computing will be getting to more people than ever. Even the netbook could not achieve the low price points the tablet has reached. A tablets cannibalize laptop and desktop sales, it also brings to computing to more people than the laptop or desktop could ever reach.