Thursday, June 6, 2013

Android Projected to Lead the Smartphone Market into 2017

If you are worried about moving to the Windows Phone platform or a worried keeping or trying a BlackBerry as the platform may die, there appears to be little to worry about. Canalys, a UK-based analysis company predicts that Android, iOS, Windows Phone and BlackBerry's OS will be alive and well in 2017.

By 2017, over 1.5 billion smartphones are projected to be sold, accounting for 73% of the total mobile market.

Android. In the next four years Android is expected to increase smartphone shipments from 470 million units per year, to over 1 billion units per year and maintain its 67% market share. 

iOS. Apple phone sales will also increase, but it will not keep up with the overall growth rate of the market. So while Apple will sell more smartphones, its share in the market will go down from 19.5% today to 14.1% in 2017. The reason for this is most of the growth in the smartphone market is expected to come from not from a great increase in demand for mobile phones in general, but from smartphones continuing to eat into the sales of feature phones. Since Apple does not compete in the lower cost segments, its market share is projected to decrease.

Windows Phone. Windows Phone is now competing even against entry level Androids with low cost offerings from Nokia, Huawei and soon, ZTE. Because of this, the market share of Windows Phone is expected to increase from 2.4% today, to 12.7% in 2017. This will put it back at about the same level as Windows Mobile hit in its peak in 2007.

BlackBerry. BlackBerry is supposed to hold it current market share, its current 4.8% market share being projected to be 4.6% in 2017. At it peak, in 2009 BlackBerry held nearly 20% of the market.

Others. While there are many new mobile operating systems in the works like Ubuntu, Firefox OS, Sailfish and most notably Tizen, these operating systems are not expected to have any significant impact. Other smartphone operating systems now how 5.6% of the market. This is expected drop to 1.5% be 2017.

So it looks like iOS and BlackBerry will continue to hold niche markets, while in the long run it is Android and Windows Phone which will be contending for the top spot.

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